To Dream or not to Dream

Andleeb Abbas

Andleeb Abbas is the Chief Executive of The Institute of Marketing and Sales, LCCHS, Lahore. She is a management consultant with a vision that extends beyond sales charts and balance sheets of corporate clients. She is equally at home with cold numbers and human concepts.

She has allowed me to reproduce her article which dissects current fundamental issues with the precision of a surgeon's scalpel.

“What would be the socio demographic face of this country in the year 2005?”

 The answer to this question would excite the typical economist to stir up quite a few statistics.  Total population, birth rates, literacy rates, urbanisation rate etc. will be calculated on the basis of historical analysis and trends will be established to forecast the future growth in these areas. 

The danger of the historical analysis is that it assumes that the past and the future will have enough similarities to make an authentic and accurate forecast.  Aided by clever statistics, which can twist and work around the most unfavourable of the scenarios, government after government has succeeded in projecting reasonable growth levels in the coming years.  But as Aaron Levenstein once provocatively said
“Statistics are like  bikinis.  What they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital”,

the number game has a tendency of giving in to true lies.  Trade deficits going down, exports going up, corruption decreasing and investment increasing are headlines aimed at the ordinary and the ignorant.  As this country is blessed with a majority falling in these two categories they become innocent victims of the word power and number manipulation of the ruling authority.

 An Elusive Dream

Once upon a time there was a country created out of dreams.  It was poor and unstable but with a lot of promises of growth.  For a long period of time people lived in this dream of hope and expectation that one day the White Knight will come and rescue this country from all evils and problems.  For some time Ayub Khan was the candidate for such a role.  Again the statistics prove his merit.  Significant leaps were made in industrial and agricultural production, where growth rates in excess of 20% per annum were witnessed in the large scale manufacturing sector.  The economy in general, and the industrial sectors in particular, grew by phenomenal rates, and Pakistan was considered to be a model capitalist economy in 1960s.  Yet the controversy surrounds this growth due to the eventual effects and results this growth had on increasing economic, social and political tensions. The creation of the haves and the have-nots was largely an outcome of the economic concentration policies, which were later highly criticized by the experts and quickly resulted in the withdrawal of the title of the White Knight from Ayub Khan.

 Then came the pop culture political era of Mr. Z. A. Bhutto.  He represented a breath of fresh air into the staid and depressed state of politics after the loss of the East Pakistan wing.  His brand of populism entailing frequent public addresses, and forceful extempore communication, made him an instant hit with the masses who were hungry for attention, and desperate for a revival, gladly bestowed on him the title of the rescuer.  Thereafter his opinionated style of management led to a huge contradiction to his public statements, thus bringing him to dust rapidly.  To his credit one must say that it was not only bad management but bad luck as well, which sped up his downfall.  In many ways he was an unlucky politician, and events beyond his control affected his economic programme.  The 1973 OPEC price hike, recurrent domestic crop failures, and floods in 1973, 1974 and 1976 affected Pakistan’s main exports and economy.  Thereafter the dark era of Zia ul Haq, and the constantly fluctuating eras of Nawaz Sharif and Benazir increasingly created a seesaw of public emotions, which finally fell into the inevitable apathy, reflecting extreme cynicism and disillusionment.

Dream Recalled!!!

And one day the sun rose again, stars retwinkled and the birds started chanting the song of retribution, renaissance, and restoration.  That day supposedly was 12^th October 1999.  The people were glued to the TV loving every moment of the self-selected Chief Executive’s clear and firm statements on corruption control, and economy reform.  He was an instant hero; a man who had the will, and more important the power to make the rich and the corrupt powerless; the man who had the ability to redistribute wealth and control inflation, to alleviate poverty; the man who could downsize and tame the untouchable group of bureaucrats and civil servants

 These were the hopes and aspirations of the public when General Musharraf came into power and started earnestly to tackle these deep-rooted economic malaises.  It seemed that for the first time in the half a century old history of the country we were about to witness action and implementation rather than plans and processions.

 In the next sixteen months the action gave way to consultation and the consultation gave way to negotiation and the negotiation gave way to concession.  Back to square one.

May be it is too early to give the ultimate verdict and withdraw the heroic titles away, but concern we must show.  Why?  Because actions speak louder than words.  From a brave soldier, with an iron grip, and no one above the law attitude, the public views him now as an indecisive, weak, and prone to the ISV (Islamabad Syndrome Virus) man.  Plagued by the same infection of media exposure, suppression or expulsion of opposition, and ever so often falling to the temptation of hypocrisy and issue evasion.  Let us take some of the key areas and see why such a change of image has incurred.

 1.      Anti Corruption Drive

Whether it is Nawaz Sharif, Mr. Sultan Lakhani or some not so corrupt defaulter, they were all publicly apprehended, brought to the court, jailed and later released on the grounds of the NAB having recovered the plundered or defaulted amount from them.  If Mr. Sharif only plundered a few hundred million rupees, then surely he was not as corrupt as Bill Clinton.  Even Mr. Lakhani who was released recently after he “promised” to pay the government Rs. 1.5 billion over a period of the next ten years will be laughing his head off over the imbecility of the concerned authorities.

 Debt defaulters are still around, proud and even stronger, now with this belief that those who pay their debts deserve to be categorized as idiots.

 No deadlines, no progress reports, no facts and figures have been revealed as to who all were the culprits, which ones were caught, which ones punished, and what the recovered amount was.  In the government’s communication code, no news is good news.

2.      Anti Smuggling

 The bara markets were supposed to be sealed off, the porous borders blocked.  A couple of months of operation cleanup did take place, but the inevitable compromise was announced.  They were supposed to pay a fixed tax and things were to be legalized, regularized or legitimized, I really cannot tell the difference.  Yet the Auriga Centres, Shadmans, Rashakai’s and Panoramas thrive on smuggled items and make a mockery of any such claims.

 3.      Economy Reform 

• The exports though increased, are all set to fail in achieving the targeted growth
• Foreign investment has remained on the low ebb despite government claims of reaching a “compromise” with IPP’s.

• The inflation is all set to increase, thanks to an increase in power and gas tariffs.  The prices of oil have already led to a sharp increase in the cost all goods sold.

• Devaluation has pushed the price of dollar above the Rs. 60 mark.  As usual the impact on export increase has been nominal, while the import bill has ballooned up causing an increase in the trade deficit.

• Tax collection drives have resulted in little increase in the tax revenue, while it has clearly scared off a lot of small and medium scale entrepreneurs from expanding their activity, as income projections cannot be made with any degree of certainty.

• The GDP growth rate has fallen below the expected 4.5% indicating a continuation of sluggishness and slowness of economy, reminiscent of the last one decade.
• Famine in Balochistan is all set to aggravate as a 40% shortage of water resources is expected.  Here comes an increase in water charges.

Dreams Unfulfilled

 The mass transfer of manpower in the 1970’s actually contributed to the enlargement of the middle class.  The lower class rushed to the Middle East dreaming of better monetary rewards, and more or less came back with pockets full.  They all treated it as a short spurt away from their country with an objective of creating prosperous opportunities for their family back home.

 Almost thirty years later another mass exodus is taking place.  Yet, this time it is frightening in it’s immensity and dimension.  It is not the lower class seeking an opportunity of quick money, but the middle, and also the upper class, which has decided to bid farewell to their country.

They are not unskilled, uneducated, ordinary people, but highly educated, relatively well off professionals, who constitute the backbone of a socio economic system.  It is not a matter of losing these individuals for a short time but losing them forever.  They are migrating in thousands with their families, lock, stock and barrel.  The favourite refuge for such families is Canada who has been trying to lure professionals to fill up their huge population gap.  Other final destinations include Australia and Dubai.  When asked why they are leaving their homes and their relatively good jobs, their reply is that they see no future for their children in this country.

 Ten years ago if I asked my graduate level students whether they would like to go abroad, around 30-40% had aspirations of going outside the country in search of greener pastures.  Today the same question elicits a 90-100% response in the affirmative.  Such a state of affairs once existed in Iran, when sick of the fundamentalist policies of the government, many liberal Iranian families used to defect to Pakistan on their way to Europe and USA.  In Pakistan the reason is not fundamentalism, but a fear of hanging on to a dream of better Pakistan, which, with passage of time has turned into a fantasy far removed from reality.

 Conclusion

 According to a rough estimate, last year, about 600,000 people left the country with the intention of never to return.  How to stop this exodus is a perplexing question for the government and the patriotic part of the society.  The government must work on a strategic and operational course of action.

•  In the long term the government must show performance, not only in numbers but also in action.  The start of this regime was eventful and positive.  The selection of the people for the major posts was appropriate; the catch and hang the thief policy daring and deliberate.  But somehow the momentum was not maintained.  The inability of the government to withstand the pressures of the bigwigs, the IMF and the core army gurus, has made them look lame and helpless

•  Men of action and intellectual ability found it difficult to cohabit with them and one by one they all departed; Javed Jabbar, Shafquat Mahmood and finally Shahid Kardar.

• Even the policies, which have been successful like the information technology packages, are attractive mostly in the short run.  Such benevolence to this sector will increase the number of IT professionals available in the year 2005.  But for whom?  For USA, for Germany, for Canada.  Not a single IT student intends to stay in the country.  They all have one objective; “To get trained and to get out”.

 The IT policy must address the issue of making the local industry attractive, (like Bangalore has done), by making it an attractive haven for big firms to seek skilled labour in Pakistan, and also to pay them handsomely to make it worthwhile for them to invest in their future careers in this country. 

Let us come back to the initial question of the socio demographic composition of the population in the year 2005.  Given the present conditions, it looks certain to be dominated by the illiterate and the unfortunate; who either cannot afford, or do not have the capability to qualify the immigrant criteria.  The fear of being one of these leftovers is instigating this mass exodus.

The government still has quite a few good men left in it’s ranks and there is still a hope of a transformation taking place.  But it must not give in to the temptation of “bidding its time”.  Getting more coverage on the Khabarnama is not going to help Mr. & Mrs. Musharraf with the popular vote.  Acting as a chief guest on the man of the match ceremony at the conclusion of Pakistan England series is not going to win him any applause; Restoring Kashmir Day holiday on 5^th February is just not enough to silence the patriots; and, most of all silencing and removing the opposition from the scene is going to give only one, single, clear message to the weary public.  “There they go again on their mad pursuit of self perpetuation, so let’s go into safer and saner territories”.

 As the country has survived over fifty years on prayers and good wishes, diehard idealists like myself, and many others, hope and pray that the year 2005 will witness a new era.  An era of opportunity and prosperity for all our people;  A country where we all will proudly live and honourably.die  And you, Mr. Chief Executive, can still help us fulfill this dream.  Amen.