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It
is never fully safe to draw parallels between different socio-political
systems since conclusions drawn invariably end up ignoring incomparable
variables. For example, to assume that a commodity marketing system
that works in, say Thailand, can be transplanted in Sargodha is fraught
with many false assumptions. However broad conceptual deductions are
sometimes valid, especially where ethnic and social structures bear
similarities. The results of the Indian elections, turning out contrary
to most predictions, are sending strong signals for Pakistan's leadership.
There are three clear signals emanating from Congress Party's resurgence.
Before that, I must qualify that this column is not synchronous with
a rising chorus of ode for the glory of Indian democracy. In my book,
"Dysfunctional Democracy: A Case for an Alternative Political
System" where I have argued the demerits of parliamentary form
of democracy for Pakistan, I have dedicated at least half a chapter
discounting the success of Indian democracy. I have shown that out
of the four universally accepted measures of success for any democracy
viz. stability, accountability, smooth succession and equitable economic
prosperity, India has achieved only two so far - stability and smooth
succession. The other two are distant dreams as yet. I have also underlined
that democratic experiments in Pakistan have not achieved any of these
parameters. In that sense India may be ahead but not an ideal.
Having said that, we can begin by acknowledging that Indian democracy
has once again demonstrated its ability to produce stability and smooth
transition of power. Beyond that the three clear lessons that political
analysts are propounding through hindsight are, 1) that urban-rural
divide outweighs macro-economic growth indicators in a polarised society
with rural population bias, 2) Ideological extremism is unreliable
fuel for political engines and 3) Dynastic charisma is a potent lure
for illiterate masses in the sub-continent.
Pakistan and India both share a dual-faced existence; both have two
faces - a superficial glitter of urban infrastructure, technology
and consumerism, and the bland destitution of the rural populace frozen
in bygone times. The stark disparities are not only in terms of per
capita incomes; they extend to opportunities, life-styles, social
mobility, egalitarian ethos and the whole scope of what may be described
as social evolution. The depravities of urban poor, and they are not
small in numbers, have their own dynamics but a doom of debilitating
fatalism is not one of them. While the urban poor whiz along the razzmatazz
of busy streets hanging out of smoking buses and vans, the rural poor
sit and endure the rusty creaking of time that moves like an old Persian
wheel.
What happened to BJP was not so much that the rural poor indicted
them for not having a magic wand to cure their plight, it was more
a reaction to the illusion of 'shining India' being flashed in their
faces. The strategy backfired because it rubbed salt into the wounds,
quite akin to Armstrong hitting a golf ball on the moon. The world
protested to the gesture as a slap on the face of the bulk of humanity
for whom golf represents a very privileged and elitist sport. Kicking
a football would have been more symbolic of man on the moon. Mr Vajpayee
was carried away by urban spin doctors who ill-advised him to sell
India's phenomenal economic growth to the masses of India. It was
like trying to sell a washing machine to someone who doesn't have
electricity. India's economic miracle is a hard reality, no one can
doubt that, but the rural masses refused to endorse it since it had
nothing to do with them. The urban-rural divide is no less stark in
Pakistan; if anything more so because Pakistan has a smaller number
of urban poor.
My last three columns on poverty and its different dimensions, I believe,
stand redeemed by the results of Indian elections. I have been pleading
that we should not mistake macro-economic growth indicators with general
prosperity in the country as both can be mutually exclusive. Number
crunchers in the upper echelons of power should not rest on over-all
growth alone. Poverty has its own vectors which need addressing through
a totally different set of prescriptions. The urban poor in India
perhaps know in their hearts that Sonia Gandhi may not have effective
means for their redemption but they voted for her because she spoke
to them from her heart and they believed her. They reacted to Vajpayee
because he flaunted the fortunes of the urban privileged in their
faces. Leaders in Pakistan should pay heed to this phenomenon and
refrain from flaunting numbers that do not touch over a third of the
population in the country who are poor, even by official standards.
BJP, for all its recent overtures to Pakistan for peace process, retains
its extremist sentiments in terms of reviving Hindu entity and ethnic
pride. Ayodhia mosque, communal riots in Gujrat, exploding of the
bomb and a very militant stand against Pakistan immediately after
911 are the strands of its militant ethos. Mr. Vajpayee metamorphosed
those colours of the Party very deftly through shifting the focus
on economic liberalisation and peace with Pakistan but the distant
thunder always remains audible in party lines. People of India (and
Pakistan), in the inertia of peace initiatives, have discovered the
latent fraternity between them and voted for the long standing commitment
of the Congress to secular values. Exchange of visitors and delegations
between the countries have kindled a feeling of goodwill in the public
that is fast overtaking the entrenched animosity and suspicions of
the two governments. Despite Mr. Vajpayee's direct and personal attachment
to the peace process, Indian people instinctively feel that Sonia
Gandhi, a cosmopolitan figure really, can perhaps advance on those
frontiers more effectively.
Lastly, the dramatic revival of the Gandhi dynasty in these elections,
despite its tragic history, or perhaps because of it, underlines a
need in the people of the subcontinent for human icons, idols to symbolise
the ethos of a philosophy. Sonia Gandhi was never a willing politician;
she was cajoled in by a flagging Congress that needed a focal personality
to hold it together but her mass appeal has clicked. It is understandable
since majority is illiterate and cannot grasp abstractions of political
thought. Institutions are not mature enough to exist without iconic
props. This phenomenon of personality cults runs through all people
of the subcontinent - Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. Unless
literacy levels reach very high levels and per capita incomes reach
middle income countries this is likely to remain so. It is a factor
that political practitioners cannot ignore, for good or for bad.
What are we to envisage from these lessons if we were to indulge in
the luxury of imagining that we can have a transparent and stable
democracy in Pakistan, un-interrupted by well meaning and knowledgeable
benefactors. Given the same urban-rural divide and economic disparities,
I should say that People Party has a clear edge over other parties
as representing the interests of the downtrodden. Twice it has demonstrated
a strong rural vote bank. It stands for more liberal ideology than
any other party, even if it is shy of proclaiming secularism. And
it has the largest dynastic hallow over its head in Benazir Bhutto.
The handicap of being mired in charges of corruption is not exclusive
since that is perceived as a common denominator for all politics in
Pakistan. So what? Says the common man, who isn't? The enduring popularity
of her party is based on the charismatic and ideological legacy of
Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, and the fact that her party has stood fast against
the military. Given her political assets, the only way to destroy
her would have been to compromise her by accepting her in the fold
of the present set up. Ironically, General Musharraf has conferred
this reward on those with far meagre political statures. This tactical
move will prove a strategic disaster eventually.
The lessons of the Indian election results re-enforce the assumption
that Peoples Party is a force to reckon with, which will not fade
away by a few years in the wilderness.
Iqbal
Mustafa
1360 words
14 May 2004
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