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For
this new series of columns, I have symbolically chosen the title from
the call of the Roman guards when they addressed passers by: Quo Vadis,
where are you going? In the previous series, 'Inside view' I took
a retrospective approach, dilating upon many areas that affect our
lives by dint of institutional management of the country. While responding
positively many readers complained that I was finding faults but not
proffering solutions. In this series, I am taking a prospective view
of things where we can look at the paths ahead and the choices available.
There is no certainty in determining destiny but it certainly helps
knowing a little about the paths ahead.
Pakistan is poised at a fork of history - there are only two roads
ahead, as I shall explain during my submission - one leads towards
the model of Malaysian progress and the other towards being marginalised
in the community of nations like Ethiopia or Afghanistan and becoming
a basket case. Unfortunately, there is no middle path. In a fiercely
competitive world, all benchmarks are external - either you are gaining
or you are loosing. The luxury of maintaining a status quo is no more.
The next few months, not years, are going to determine whether Pakistan
joins the global race for prosperity or takes a lonely dead end street
falsely basking in theological glory.
Whatever were the dynamics of past policies - foreign, defense, economic,
agriculture, trade etc. we have to leave them behind and start at
ground zero today. Nine-Eleven was a watershed in the beginning of
modern history. A decade ago, fall of the USSR was a turning point
of history, the implications of which Pakistan failed to comprehend
and drifted on to a tangent of delusionary adventures on both fronts
- Afghanistan and Kashmir. The national obsession with acquiring a
nuclear deterrent against India to neutralize the imbalance of conventional
forces intensified through the nineties, as did the official patronization
of voluntary fanatical militant forces as 'war fodder' at low cost
to deployed on both fronts. Domination of Afghanistan by proxy through
militants was conceived as the 'strategic depth' required for a conventional
war against India. Hence the key elements of foreign policy, support
for Taliban, Kashmiri militants (or freedom fighters), covert development
of nuclear weapons and tacit support of training camps for Jihadi's
in the country formed a composite strategy to defy India's hegemony
and assert a National agenda in the region with militant means, specifically
against an awakening giant in the neighbourhood, India, the omnipotent
foe.
India had taken little time to shift policy tracks after the fall
of the Russian Empire and begun to usher structural economic reforms
to open up its economy. During the nineties India's economy blossomed
in progressive de-regulation riding on the investments in the previous
decades on industrial infrastructure and human resource development.
Growth rates were over 6 percent, rising to 7 percent in the 1997.
Pakistan's grand plans to derail the Indian empire by engagement in
Kashmir managed to cap Indian economic growth; had it not been for
the covert war between the two countries, Indian growth levels would
have been over 10 percent. Pakistani establishment perceived this
as a great success in containment of Indian power, since military
strength is a product of economic strength.
It was a pyric victory at best. Nineties was a decade of 'poverty'
in Pakistan. The per capital growth index was lower than Ethiopia
during the nineties - poverty rising to 39 percent up from 17 percent
during the seventies. Exports were stagnant from 1994 to 2000. Political
stability became progressively wobbly and produced ad-hoc vacillating
policies that damaged the economy and kept investors away. Jihadi
culture progressively became stronger to produce fiefdoms within the
state. Law and order deteriorated to the lowest watermark. Skimming
state coffers through innovative means became the most popular route
to individual and corporate fortunes. The state moved rapidly towards
international isolation and ill repute. Small initiatives through
unofficial, trak-II talks with India to bring some sanity to the growing
madness were subverted by the Kargil misadventure.
Nine-Eleven incident unleashed intense and direct pressures on Pakistan
that began to dismantle the composite foreign/defense policy overnight.
Abdicating support for Taliban and cooperation with US against terrorism
had a direct logical bearing on Kashmir policy - surrender on one
front took away the logic behind stand on the other. The stubborn
resistance on that front cracked down under international pressures
in a short time and Pakistan is cooperating with India on peace talks
that seem a contrived arrangement in appearances but with high hopes
that substantial progress may follow under guided pressures.
As if these capitulations were not enough to shatter national pride
in past policies, the scandal of nuclear proliferation, again timed
and choreographed by international volition, pushed Pakistan into
a corner. The third component of foreign/defense policy, nuclear deterrent,
the pride and joy of the whole nation became murky as revelations
of covert leakages exploded on the world media. Pakistan's morality
came under dark shadows and the establishment's ability to secure
its nuclear facilities was shattered. The efforts for damage control,
by producing willing 'fall-guys' and open confessions is taken with
a pinch of salt by the World. As Pakistan hopes to close the matter
and revive the State's credibility, some quarters will not let the
matter be closed. India, Israel and certain the paranoid Europeans
will keep asking more questions that are awkward. Bush, the greatest
supporter of Pakistan in appearance, unfolded a non-proliferation
policy of the US in which for the first fifteen minutes he spoke like
a prosecutor against A.Q.Khan, although he absolved Pakistan government.
The new rules announced during that speech are asking for measures
that would put Pakistan's nuclear program under severe constraints.
So this is ground zero for Pakistan today! By compulsions past policies
have to be trashed. The peace process has largely removed a major
constraint on India's economic take off as the emerging economic giant
in the world - its economy projected to grow at 8 percent and likely
to attain the size of the US economy by year 2050. After resolution
of Kashmir, its claim for a permanent seat in the Security Council
will gain validity. My estimations indicate that the gap between Indian
and Pakistan will grow over the next two decades. Pakistan's GDP ranks
27th at 311 billion dollars which is roughly 12 percent of India's.
With projected growth rate, the gap is likely to widen. Econometric
models indicate that by 2010 Pakistan's economy will be 9 percent
of India's. If defence spending in maintained at current ratio (India
spending half of Pakistan) by 2010 Pakistan's defence spending will
drop to 22 % of India from the current 26%. Time is on India's side.
Pakistan has to find a new direction, new objectives, new strategies
to coexist with India - conflict is not a viable option anymore.
Peace process of composite dialogues will proceed within the narrow
constraints of past inertia, political compulsions, diplomatic posturing
and face saving agreements and hopes are high that derailment of talks
is not affordable by either side. Bitter pills will be swallowed by
both parties and diplomatically kosher solutions will be hailed in
a few months. But what then? Indian will be on its way pursuing its
grand plan of becoming a global power house with defence capacity
that looks beyond regional threats.
Where does Pakistan go from ground zero? How does it diffuse the jihadi
forces that are turning inwards to wreak havoc internally? How does
it adjust to live with a giant neighbour with a long history of acrimony?
How does it put its own house in order, politically, economically,
socially and morally? The paradigms on which Pakistan existed for
the past fifty six years are no more.
Most of all, even if the leaders at the top have a genuine change
of heart and want to turn a new leaf, how do you de-militarise the
civilian mind that still eulogises like of A.Q.Khan as benefactors
of the nation, and that still perceives India as the embodiment of
'Hindu' psyche that is anathema to the purity of Islamic ethos. If
we have to move ahead from ground zero, this is perhaps the single
most important challenge ahead and the government, the intelligentsia
the media and the opinion makers must put their head together to start
re-conditioning the general public opinion and purging irrational
prejudices against contemporary realities. The rest will follow with
time and sagacious planning. I will be writing on these issues in
the coming months.
Iqbal Mustafa
28 February 2004
1361 words
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