|
Pakistan is poised at a fork of history - there are only two roads
ahead - one leads towards the model of Malaysian progress and the
other towards being marginalized in the community of nations like
Ethiopia or Afghanistan by becoming a basket case. Unfortunately there
is no middle path any more. In a fiercely competitive world all benchmarks
are external - either you are gaining or you are loosing to others.
No longer can a country afford to set benchmarks against its own historical
trends alone. The luxury of maintaining a status quo is no more there
either.
Within this larger perspective, we can begin by focussing on the shadow
that India casts on Pakistan. Historical and geographical context
locks Pakistan with India like Siamese twins who cannot live with
each other and cannot live without either. Partition created two siblings
with harsh political differences. Ideological divisions and ragged
edges of partition gave birth to mutual suspicions that hardened to
irreconcilable acrimony over time as events lead both nations down
warpaths many times, beginning with Kashmir that has remained till
this day the cornerstone of conflict. The issue evokes the fundamental
strong sentiments of partition. Time has not healed old wounds and
Kashmir is a sore issue that keeps creating fresh ones. It is as if
the solution of Kashmir will validate the ideological position on
partition for the winning side: So neither side will concede an inch
since the psychological stakes are higher than merely Kashmir's geographical
and political fate.
Global events have created forces pushing both sides towards a détente.
The heat of external pressures has softened the hard stand on both
sides and a process of composite dialogue has begun that includes
Kashmir as a key issue. As the two sides have begun to feel one another
like two wranglers in an arena, it seems as if Pakistan is more keen
for a break through in the five decade old deadlock, while India is
content with a power play of status quo in the hope of wearing the
opponent down to submission. In this perspective, a key question that
we, as Pakistanis, must be asking ourselves is to what extend should
we be prepared to concede for arriving at a solution? Or, putting
it another way, what will be the cost of not resolving the Kashmir
issue, and whether 150 million Pakistanis ought to be made to pay
this cost for 6.5 odd million Kashmiris in Indian held Jammu and Kashmir?
Another question follows from this. If India fails to correspond for
an acceptable solution of Kashmir, should Pakistan then continue with
normalization in other areas or draw back to the same old position
that it has held for the past 50 years?
The answers to all these critical questions relate to an objective
and empirical analysis of India's strength and potential. In the past
Pakistan's foreign policy towards India has operated on three features:
1) National security perceptions have resided in narrow confines of
territorial safety for which three-to-one parity was maintained militarily
although India is six times the size of Pakistan. 2) Conflict was
engaged through immediate tactical manoeuvres based on threats and
opportunities as they appeared from time to time - without a long-term
vision and a consistent political philosophy to guide, monitor and
evaluate actions. 3) In diplomatic and economic ranking, the relative
parity that existed for 50 years was assumed a constant.
None of these features or perceptions holds any bearing to contemporary
realities. Pakistan's security threats are not territorial only; post
9/11 developments have added new dimensions to external threats and
pressures including those from India. The one-to-three parity is not
sustainable anymore. Even with the current trends of Pakistan spending
twice as much as India on defence as percentage of GDP, the military
parity will drop to one-to-five within five years. And India's defence
budget will equal Pakistan's total GDP in fifteen years time. Tactical
manoeuvres without political planning have caused more damage and
undone whatever gains were made diplomatically - Kargil adventure,
for example. Lastly, India's growing economic strength with commensurate
diplomatic advantage is shattering Pakistan's illusions of parity
that were.
Peter Drucker, the management guru has stated that, "India is
becoming a power house very fast. The medical School in New Delhi
is now perhaps the best in the world. And technology graduates of
the Indian Institute of Information Technology in Banglore are as
good as any in the world. So India is becoming a knowledge centre."
Out of the Fortune 500 companies, 100 have set-up their R&D facilities
in India. Many of the leading state of art new technology products
are being designed and developed in India by likes of GE, Monsanto,
Daimler, Chrysler, HP and Aston Martin.
India's country profile is impressive today: Home to nearly 1 billion
people and large, growing consumer class estimated at 200 million
people with English as main language. It has an adequate pool of scientists,
engineers, managers and labour force available at competitive costs;
it has well developed basic R & D infrastructure, technical and
marketing services. It has a mature financial sector and capital market
with over 8500 listed companies and market capitalisation of 2 trillion
US $. Last year, foreign investment of 4.7 billion dollars flowed
into India. Its Foreign exchange reserves stand at 120 billion dollars
(ten times that of Pakistan), exports are growing at 20 percent with
a diverse range of products in high tech categories. Indian economy
has taken off already on a high rise curve. It is the 5th largest
economy in the world with a GDP of 2.6 trillion dollars, growing at
a rate of around 6 percent since 1991 and projected to grow at 8 percent
in coming years. Many economists estimate that Indian economy will
equal US economy by year 2050. (Pakistan's GDP is ranked 27th at 311
billion dollars, which is roughly 12 percent of India's. With slower
growth rate in Pakistan, the gap is likely to widen. Econometric models
indicate that by 2010 Pakistan's economy will be 9 percent of India's.)
Its obvious that time is on India's side. Pakistan has a rapidly closing
window of opportunity, despite the false sense of nuclear security,
to resolve conflicts with India. In Volume 19 of the Selected Works
of Jawaharlal Nehru printed in 1996, he is quoted as writing to Shiekh
Abdullah, "We are superior to Pakistan in military and industrial
power. But that superiority is not so great as to produce results
quickly in war or by fear of war. Therefore, our national interest
demands that we should adopt a peaceful policy towards Pakistan and,
at the same time, add to our strength. Strength ultimately comes not
from defence forces, but the industrial and economic background behind
them. As we grow in strength, and we are likely to do so, Pakistan
will feel less and less inclined to threaten or harass us, and a time
will come when, through sheer force of circumstances, it will be in
a mood to accept a settlement which we consider fair, whether in Kashmir
or elsewhere."
Perhaps that time has come, as Pakistan seems eager to resolve the
Kashmir conflict. The key question is whether we intend to resolve
historical conflict with India on a tactical level or a primary conceptual
level. In my humble opinion the tactical approach is bound to fail,
as in the past. We have to seek conceptual solutions from within our
own mindset and from Indian cooperation. In place of seeking a strategy
to counter Indian power - as our conditioned responses dictate - I
suggest we re-align our security perceptions to co-exist with Indian
Power. We should have learned the cardinal lesson from the collapse
of the Russian empire - a third world economy cannot sustain a military
super power.
P.S
India's perception of a 'fair settlement' is a variable that will
constantly change in accord with its economic and military power with
time. What India is prepared to offer today may not be deemed 'fair'
a few years down the line. While it is prepared to concede parts of
Kashmir and Northern areas today, it may not tomorrow.
Iqbal Mustafa
1350 words
04 December 2004
|
