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A Snapshot never tells the whole story; it just captures a moment
of reality in a time segment - like a balance sheet showing a company's
financial position at a given time or the photograph of a dancer frozen
in one of the millions of poses. Snapshots do however open a window
to reality of things, especially if a series of them are viewed sequentially.
The New Year in Pakistan started with General Musharraf's final assertion
to retain his uniform till 2007, or by implication whatever date he
deems fit in future. This, of course, had the support of the majority
of publicly elected representatives in the country, and therefore
tactically correct. Even is one does not believe in horoscopes, there
is an itch to wonder what the New Year will bring forth. We can only
peer into the future through a current snapshot of the situation;
hence this column today.
Politically, the situation is as amorphous and precarious as it has
always been in the country, no one knowing what can happen next. A
chaperoned democracy is in place but needs the strong hands of the
Army Chief to let it flourish. Reconciliation with exiled leadership
has been initiated with no clear agenda. Rumours swing from clandestine
deals for an interim government and fresh elections in 2005 to continuing
status quo with existing potpourri of political partners. When all
possible computations and permutations have been exhausted for future
alignment of political forces in the country, one question remains
unanswered! What happens if, God forbid, the President is assassinated?
When I ask foreign investors about their worst fears regarding Pakistan,
this is the one question they all ask instantaneously. Good management
(governance?) includes a succession plan. After we swallow all the
goodness of the current political status in the country, this question
sticks in the throat like a lump. I think the President and his advisors
would do well if they could spell out a viable 'succession plan' under
different possible scenarios, domestic and external. We will be able
to sleep more peacefully after that and so will others in the world
who have a stake in Pakistan.
On the diplomatic front the revised foreign policy of peace initiatives
with India are running out of steam. In spite of 'blow hot blow cold'
statements by the President, India is refusing to budge from its intractable
stance on most issues, smug in the knowledge that time is on its side.
Baglihar dam has drawn a red herring across Kashmir talks as Pakistan
has refused to continue bilateral talks unless India suspends construction
works immediately. A case for submission to World Bank is now on the
anvil in the hope of getting external assistance. On the overall situation
regarding composite dialogues with India, General Musharraf has warned
that CBMs (couldn't we have chosen a better abbreviation because CBM
also stand for continental ballistic missiles) can not proceed without
resolution of fundamental issues. It seems the peace process is just
short of hitting a hard impasse. Does Pakistan have an alternative
strategy to keep the process alive? In parallel, the arms race is
very much on again between the two countries. The situation reminds
me of a cartoon where a big bad cowboy has put his foot on the toes
of a little cowboy with a menacing grin. The little cowboy is saying
to the big cowboy, "I give you till tomorrow sunset, take your
foot off my foot…." May be it is not as bad but the current
snapshot rings a bell.
The second component of foreign policy, fight against terrorism, is
hitting snags domestically. The line of distinction between terrorism,
crime and regional dissent has almost disappeared. The increasing
intensity in acts of violence - killings, hijackings, abductions,
attacks on infrastructures, even crimes against women - is being driven
by various motives but use similar methods and weapons; it all adds
up to deterioration of 'law and order' situation in the country that
keeps investors wary, gives country a negative image and makes populace
insecure. The fight against terrorism has expanded to fight for maintaining
law and order sucking in all security agencies from the police to
the armed forces, whereas many areas require political solutions.
The nexus between professional criminals, drug mafias, religious militants,
political activists and some rogue, ex-elements of security agencies
is compounding the problems of internal security for the country.
Vectors of politics and ideology have adopted very hostile dimensions
as the military is engaged on two fronts in western minority provinces
of the country. Overt logistic support from the U.S. to fight terrorism
is not sufficient to separate the multiple threads of militancy from
the social fabric of the society. The ham-fisted approach of the establishment
is leading towards a situation that Americans are facing in Iraq -
combating ghosts, not enemies in flesh and blood.
On the economic front, the sheen of economic stabilisation achieved
over the past four years is beginning to fade as trade deficit rises
to unprecedented levels putting pressures on exchange rates (especially
in relation to Euro and the Pound), inflation and interest rates,
which are creeping up. Poverty remains the largest phantom refusing
to abate; trickle down effect has yet to appear. SMEs are threatened
with WTO regime as domestic industries are turning turtle - shoes,
crockery, sanitary ware, ceramics, light engineering and sports goods
etc - as cheaper imports are taking over domestic markets while exports
have decreased in the last year. In spite of a bumper cotton crop
this year, agriculture remains stagnant as water shortages and weaknesses
in commodity markets is eroding farm productivity and profitability
progressively. As other nations are securing economic integration
through strengthening trade blocks, Pakistan remains outside any such
protective shield and is danger of being left out in the cold.
In the predominant opinion of general public, scepticism is rising;
hope is dwindling as institutions seem to be failing in providing
promising prospects. The underlying statistics can be massaged anyway
one likes but the perceptions and optics are not looking good. One
hopes that there is something our helmsmen know that we don't but
the current country snapshot needs substantial retouching to make
it look pretty.
Iqbal Mustafa
email: mustafa@hujra.com
1034 words
19 January 2005
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