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Countries or nations are like living organisms; they have a biology.
They evolve, adapt, metamorphose and in this they follow quite a predictable
life process. They respond to forces - historical continuity, ecological
changes, geopolitical vectors, mineral discoveries, technological
developments and so forth. Not so Pakistan! It is a political entity
with infinite capacity for genetic mutations in rapid and continuous
successions, like a bionic creature that can morph into different
forms at random.
From a chaotic political plurality of the fifties, it mutated into
a monolithic dictatorship of the sixties; the capitalistic fast growth
of the sixties turned into socialistic economic rot in the seventies
after the genetic segregation of its east wing. The socialist ideals
of the sixties transformed into theological dogmas of the eighties.
The remote controlled democratic order (or disorder) of the nineties
was a potpourri of all past phases of existence. Privatisation, globalisation
and free market transition coexisted with fanatical religious ethos
while the socialistic ideals of the seventies were not fully abandoned
either. The musical chairs game of political merry-go-round became
a reminiscence of the fifties, except that two major political parties
had emerged along with the rising power of the religious right wing
parties.
Then, there was a terminal twist in 1999 as General Musharraf severed
the evolving political ethos of the nineties with a proclamation of
intent for a thorough house-cleaning job. The brooms and dusters to
clean the grime were soon abandoned as the grime was embraced in a
new political order along with the religious parties to provide a
fig leaf to legitimacy of the rule. The two main political parties
that had emerged over the past fifteen years in the country were excommunicated
and cannibalised to cobble together strange new political factions
with no logical genealogy. The illusion that Pakistan had found a
Mahathir or a Lee Quan Yu soon turned murky as the President and the
Prime Minister barricaded themselves behind the best personal security
any head of state can afford. Their isolation is more than physical;
they have stopped listening to the pulse of the nation as opposition
forces, from all directions, are driving wedges into their insecure
existence.
The resolve and claims of providing continuity for economic stability
has given way to uncertainties again, as the rodeo ride is getting
rougher for the President. The problem with a country like Pakistan
is that no rational or conjectural predictions are possible for the
future. One can see, with a fair amount of certainty, where other
countries or regions are heading for - e.g India, China, Europe, even
the US but not Pakistan. One has to turn to a crystal bowl to peer
into the future. It is, in fact, the favourite national past time
since no other country has so many TV programs on political issues
- strange for a country with such low literacy levels! At least one-third
of air time on PTV, GEO, Indus and ARY is dedicated to crystal bowl
gazing.
In a recent TV interview, Nawab Akbar Bugti came through as a bold,
rational, realistic and a visionary person but even he related to
the Baluch cult of bone-reading! He didn't claim a true faith in the
craft of bone-reading but recounted instances where predictions made
through deciphering signs in bones had come true in the past e.g.
break up of East Pakistan and dismissal of Nawaz Shareef's government
in the first term.
In a column, 'In the mirror of history' (15th February, 2005) Shahid
Javed Burki wrote, "There is no doubt that if President Musharraf
succeeds in his Pakistan project, he would have earned for himself
a position in history close to that of Mohammad Ali Jinnah. This is
not an exaggerated judgment for his success would have created a new
Pakistan.
If he fails, the result would be equally spectacular not just for
the country that he leads but for the entire world. If Musharraf's
Pakistan project does not succeed and if Pakistan flounders, it would
produce tremors that will be felt well beyond the country's immediate
borders - a political tsunami that could create havoc around the globe."
His crystal bowl seems murky, as he cannot see which possibility is
more plausible or perhaps he does not want to share it with us, yet.
So what else is the crystal bowl reflecting? A ready-to-die old man
in Baluchistan is showing a red rag to a General in the hope of provoking
his trigger-happy temper, luring him into another misadventure. What
is the old man going to gain by doing so? Three things, 1) He will
gain immortality as a martyr. 2) He will forge unity amongst Baluch
tribes as no one has ever before - no army person is going to be safe
if the old man is killed in action, for as long as the last Baluch
is alive. 3) He will shake the hegemonic foundations of Islamabad's
Federalism by coercing concessions of greater autonomy for the provinces
as enshrined in the 1973 constitution. The wise old man knows his
strength! He is ready to die for his cause.
Fortunately, a Ruler is not playing on the front foot anymore! Gone
is the commando assertive certainty of doing things 'his' way. His
sabre rattling bravado has mellowed to conciliatory gestures on all
the fronts he had opened up - perhaps one too many as he has begun
to realise. In Waziristan, in Baluchistan and with expatriate opposition
leaders, he is trying to mend fences by retracting his hard stance
of the recent past.
He has realised the Mohammad Ali (Boxer) doctrine, "He who hits
and runs away lives to fight another day." Having failed in producing
an alternative political leadership in his 'kings party' for performing
convincingly at the next polls, whenever they are, he is offering
deals to Benazir and Nawaz Shareef that they can't refuse. He can
only mitigate the mounting international and domestic pressure to
step out of the uniform if he secures another term as the head of
state through not so tacit concurrence of the two populist leaders
sitting abroad who are weary of being out in the cold. So, next round
of elections (er.. selections) will install 'B' teams of PPPP and
PML (N) lead by flamboyant Zardari and dour Shahbaz Shareef, as their
respective leaders wait it out abroad. Democracy will gain credence;
the Ruler will get perpetuity while the PML(Q) alliance dissolves
having served its purpose, many of its members unabashedly melting
back into their parent folds. Three chairs for all of them… hip
hip hoorah!
What about the cantonments in Baluchistan? Will they come up and for
whom - the Baluchi recalcitrant elements or as joint-venture bases
against international terrorism? My crystal bowl is too clouded to
see that far.
Iqbal Mustafa
email: mustafa@hujra.com
1120 words
25 February 2005
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