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Pakistan
is perched precariously on the global fault line between the US lead
alliance to root out terrorism as a creed, and the ethos in pockets
of the Muslim world that nurtures irreconcilable rejection of the
domination of Western civilization. Pakistan is trying to walk on
the knife-edge of the global divide as it celebrates a US offer to
join the exclusive club of non-NATO allies while it fosters a theological
ideology of state that is sympathetic to those very forces that have
vowed to resist the western alliance until the end. Pakistan has readily
chosen a military incentive to its socio-economic problems once again.
An offer to ease trade barriers to US and EU markets would have been
a much more useful concession for long-term benefits. It is quite
transparent now that the US is leveraging Pakistan military's voracious
appetite for armaments.
More so, it has also become clear that the US has accepted Pakistan's
military establishment as the de-facto authority in the country for
good or for bad. US has two impending needs: A regional ally to provide
logistic support in neutralizing Al-Qaeda's top leadership and eradication
of a strong theological sub-culture in Pakistan that provides fertile
breeding ground for the fundamental ideology purported by Al-Qaeda.
This unstructured, amorphous ideology creates the terrorist synergy
threatening the West today, as loosely connected splinter fanatic
cells, spread across the globe, operate almost independently to wreak
havoc. The attack in Spain last week has brought the Western intelligence
agencies to acknowledge their helplessness against this 'ideology
based' network without traceable physical links. The paradox is stark
- every act of terrorism outside Israel in the world is linked to
Al-Qaeda, part of which is operating from Pakistan that has accepted
the role of a front line state against Al-Qaeda.
The 'Guns for Goodwill' alliance is painfully expedient. The world
invariably treats you as you want to be treated. We offer short-term
expediency and that's what we get. India wants long-term economic
relations and that is what it gets. Outsourcing of services to India
from the US was on top of the agenda between Vajpaee and General Powell.
EU and the US have repeatedly announced a resolve to strengthen strategic
relationship with India on a long term basis. Pakistan, in contrast,
gets a military alliance that will serve the US much more than it
can ever serve Pakistan. The irony need not be underlined.
Since the military has unequivocal authority to wage wars, set foreign
policy, handle nuclear program, amend the constitution and manipulate
political vectors in the country (as witnessed over the past fifty
years) it is quite understandable when the US negotiates and panders
to the authority that wields the mantle of power. The collective will
and interest of Pakistan, as a society, is bypassed arbitrarily.
While the establishment prides itself for waltzing on the global divide,
it is also oblivious of the internal fault lines in the country that
are more treacherous than external adventures. There are four major
cracks in the sub-strata of Pakistan's society.
First and foremost, there is the civil-military divide. This divide
runs much deeper than politics. Politicians have an axe to grind that
the military has impeded democratic evolution in the country. The
fact is that politicians hate the military only as far they are denied
its support. The civil-military divide runs across every sector in
the society - business, services, land holding etc. Military is the
largest business conglomerate in the country with a collective turnover
of over 100 billion rupees per annum. The Chief of Army Staff is also
the CEO of the largest business house in the country that runs everything
from transport, industry, housing, building contracts to agriculture
estates. In services, the military has carved out exclusive territories
from middle management to top slots of running public sector commercial
organisations. It has slots allocated in virtually all public sector
services. Military holds the best real estate assets in the country
with housing colonies in virtually every metropolitan area. Finally,
the practice of allotment of agricultural lands to military officials
seems inequitable to the civilian society. As new lands are distributed,
scarce water resources are stretch thin for the farmers.
The compounded affluence that these perquisites confer to military
personnel is a cause for considerable heartburn and inequity amongst
the civilian population, especially in view of the fact that military
spending is beyond the pale from civilian scrutiny. The civilians
suffer a sense of colonisation by the military in this sense. The
military, on the other hand, fosters a sense of superiority in terms
of their discipline, forthrightness and loyalty to the State, which
justifies their privileges. It belittles the civilians for being inefficient,
corrupt, disorganized and lacking in national spirit. The divide is
widening progressively and does not bode well for social harmony.
The vernacular versus anglophile divide cuts across all sections of
the society sharply. Not only does command of English confer clear
social and economic advantages, it distinguishes the privileged minority
for its broader global vision and a more objective view of the world.
Vernaculars feel handicapped and carry a 'chip on the shoulder' attitude
that distorts their worldview. This divide is symbolised by newspaper
styles. The tenor of headlines, editorial content and opinion columns
of Urdu and English newspapers is so diametrically opposed that one
wonders how some of them are coming out of the same publishing house.
Newspapers cater to public opinion and this indicates how the society
is divided between those who draw inspiration from English and those
who dwell in parochial mindsets. The education system in the country
will drive the wedge deeper in this major social divide.
In spite of the preamble of the constitution, a large segment of the
society is sceptical about the theological basis of statehood but
remains mute out of fear of the mullah. In a predominantly practical
way, the society is quite secular but since the word is equated with
apostasy it is a taboo to speak about it. There is a definite secular
versus non-secular divide progressively growing in the ranks of the
society that cannot be verbalized but is eroding national unity in
conceptual terms. This divide will grow with the spread and freedom
of the media in times to come.
The provincial divide has existed from the day Bengalese demanded
politically parity and were denied. The centralized federal structure
has zealously guarded its powers vis-à-vis the provinces. The
unbalanced structure, with one province being larger than the other
three put together, and Zia-ul-Haq's party less politics inflamed
ethnic groupings with centrifugal forces gaining momentum over time
toward extreme separatist sentiments. Instead of defusing sense of
depravation in the smaller provinces, the centre has kept a tight
hold of resources and controls. It would have been prudent to subdivide
provinces into manageable units but the bureaucracy whose inertia
becomes a de facto law unto itself in every large and centralised
organisation would not entertain the idea. Also, dictatorships have
a natural propensity towards coercion, rather than eliciting cooperation,
and therein lay their motivation to strengthen the central control.
The introduction of Local Government system has jumped to the other
extreme where the federal government has in a sense by-passed the
provinces to create a nexus between local governments and the centre
to the chagrin of provincial governments. The provincial divide has
two dimensions. 1) political, based on ethnic feelings and 2) administrative
where territorial strife is quite frequent and intense.
While so much attention is paid to surface tensions between political
power groups in the country and with India, there is little awareness
of the fatal fault lines Pakistan is hiding under the surface. The
military establishment has successfully smothered all opposition and
taken upon itself to lead the country out of the dire straits, for
which it has a bill of clean health from global powers. This is inherently
neither good nor bad. The consequences will determine the final verdict.
The US or the World has no interest in Pakistan's long term prospects;
they are adhering to the best course under given geo-political situation.
The military establishment must take heed of the fault lines that
I have described before earthquakes erupt. Pakistan is a country living
on many fault lines; it can ignore them at its own peril.
Iqbal Mustafa
20 March 2004
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